Where is the global economy headed? McKinsey Economic Conditions Survey, April 2010

Two-thirds of respondents rate the economy in their countries as better now than they were six months ago; and another two-thirds expect more improvement by the end of the first half of 2010. In addition, more than 80 percent of respondents think their countries’ GDPs will increase in 2010—the highest proportion since January 2009.

Three-quarters of all respondents expect to see better profits/economy in 2010.

At the global level, most executives (36 percent) say the likeliest description of the global economy in the near future is “constrained global markets perpetuate imbalances.” However, the percentage of respondents who rank this scenario number one is down ten percentage points from two months ago, while “stable fundamentals underpin global economic outlook” is gaining traction, up eight percentage points (to 28 percent), indicating that respondents expect a shift toward increased stability by the end of the first half of 2010. This scenario anticipates strong growth in emerging markets, modest growth in corporate revenues, and weak consumption in developed markets until income and job growth recover—which, the results indicate, may happen in the second half of the year as executives begin to capitalize on improved economic conditions.

Encouragingly, 42 percent of the respondents say an upturn has already begun, and 60 percent see signs of economic improvement in their daily activities at home and work. Respondents cite improvement in economic indicators such as rising consumption and salary increases, as well as perceptions of colleagues taking more time off, friends being more likely to get or change jobs, restaurants and stores being busier, and the “phone ringing with new work.” Many good/on-the-ground indicators of a better economy.